Globally, economic activity continues to be impacted by 2 main factors – the negative supply shock from the war in the Middle East and the ongoing positive technology shock driven by advances in artificial intelligence tools. According to the International Monetary Fund, global growth in the 1st quarter was stronger than expected at 3,0% down from the 4th quarter (3,8%). This is attributed to the steady increase in the share of renewable energy in global energy production, as many economies become less energy-intensive and more resilient to higher energy prices. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is expected to maintain crude oil prices between $90-$100, which is much lower than expected, and attributed to a combination of factors to help cushion the blow. This entailed the redirection of oil through various pipelines from other Gulf producers; however, this has offset only a fraction of lost volumes due to the Strait of Hormuz closures.
Nationally, the outlook as of July 2026 has a mix of successes and challenges, with GDP expected to grow at an average of 1,2% in 2026 and 1,4% in 2027. The country still faces structural constraints such as high unemployment, logistics bottlenecks and infrastructure backlogs. Sustainable growth may be enhanced through implementation of faster reforms in energy, water, and transport. Growth is also threatened by continual geopolitical conflicts and increased cost of living, which has exposed the country’s vulnerabilities as a fuel-importing, transport-intensive economy. National Treasury and the Department of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs (Cogta) have warned municipalities that future equitable share allocations will depend on improved compliance, despite the decision to release the remaining withheld July 2026 transfers from 31 July.
Locally, the Durban July horse racing and social event attracted more than 45,000 visitors from across SA, with direct spending estimated at R254m and an economic impact of approximately R880m, supporting 1,270 full-time equivalent jobs in the hospitality sector. The 15th Durban Fashion Fair will take place during 16-18 September under the theme ‘Where Legacy Lives’. The Sheshisa Women Accelerator Programme, under the aegis of Innovate Durban (and in partnership with eThekwini Municipality, Software AG, American Spaces and iKhokha), has chosen 15 out of 244 applicants to fast-track the growth of female entrepreneurs.
STATE OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
GLOBAL HIGHLIGHTS
STATE OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY
S&P Global Market Intelligence; 2026
S&P Global Market Intelligence: 2026
NATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS
NATIONAL KEY INDICATORS
KEY INDICES
Confidence Indices reflect the sentiment in the marketplace, as they capture the prevailing business climate and what businesses are experiencing at a national or local level. The index may vary between 0 and 100, where 0 indicates an extreme lack of confidence, 50 neutrality and 100 extreme confidence.
Source: The latest Indices were obtained from the institutions’ websites
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence: 2026
STATE OF THE LOCAL ECONOMY
ETHEKWINI INDICATORS
S&P Global Market Intelligence: 2026
ETHEKWINI EVENTS/AWARDS/INVESTMENTS
Although care has been taken to source current information for this edition, new data may be available during the editing, layout, and printing of the ‘Economy at a Glance’ publication and may be too late for inclusion. Due to time lags for data, certain indicators may be reported on for an earlier period rather than the current month or quarter under review.
